Enterprise, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

271
FXUS62 KTAE 180622
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 238 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

A shortwave is forecast to push a low pressure system eastward
towards the area later tonight into Saturday. Just ahead of this
system, a surge of warm, moist air is expected across the region
starting later this evening with dew points rising into the 60s by
Saturday afternoon. This system is forecast to be moving fairly
slowly eastward as the shortwave passes by, with a large swath of
showers and a few thunderstorms over the area starting later tonight
and into Saturday morning. Increasing low level wind shear is
forecast in the morning as a low level jet develops and strengthens,
but surface instability is forecast to be very low if not zero due
to an inversion at the surface. If this inversion holds, it should
limit our severe potential and keep any developing thunderstorms
elevated.

A bit of a break in rain will be possible around midday to
the afternoon before another round of showers and thunderstorms
ahead of this front blossoms over the area. This round has a bit
more potential to have some surface-based CAPE with it although
chances still seem on the lower side. A lot of what happens with
this round will depend on what kind of break in convection and
daytime heating we get after the first round. Either way, this
second round will likely last Saturday evening into the overnight
hours Saturday night. Enjoy your highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday
afternoon with lows in the 40s and 50s because it won`t happen again
for awhile.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Arctic cold front moves through during the day Sunday, setting the
stage for cold to very cold temperatures early next week.
- Confidence has increased slightly (30-40% chance now) with regards
to wintry precipitation impacting portions of our area.
- Still way too soon to be specific about what falls, exactly where,
and how much.

An Arctic cold front barrels through the region during the day
Sunday. Temperatures behind the front remain steady for a few hours
before dropping, which means dropping afternoon temperatures are in
the offering for southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
More to the east, the front comes through in the early to middle of
the afternoon, so temperatures along and east of the Flint and
Apalachicola rivers should climb into the lower 60s before dropping
late in the afternoon.

Once the cold is here, it won`t go anywhere for a while. We`re
looking at a prolonged cold spell that will last from Sunday night
through Wednesday night. Daytime highs will struggle to get out of
the 30s and lower 40s while overnight lows tumble into the 20s. A
brisk northerly wind is expected most of the period as well, making
for wind chill factors, or feels like temperatures, in the 10s to
lower 20s each morning and struggling to reach the lower to middle
30s in the middle of the afternoon Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
It should be noted that confidence in temperatures Tuesday night and
Wednesday remain somewhat uncertain due to the potential storm
system impacting the area. In case you`re wondering, the last time
we had a cold stretch like this was back around Christmas of 2022
when highs struggled to get out of the 30s across most of the region
on Christmas Eve.

That`s the cold.

Now let`s chat about the chances for wintry precipitation. We`re
honing in on the Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning time period. That means we`re still 4 to 5 days
out of the event, so we`re still looking at the big (synoptic)
picture and model trends.

A broad H5 trough dominates the eastern half of the country aloft
while a sprawling 1040+mb highs sets up shop across the middle of
the country. This is why we`re so cold. Meanwhile, a shortwave on
the western side of the H5 trough will be sliding through the Four
Corners region before traversing the Southern Plains by the middle
of next week. This is one of the linchpins to the forecast because
the model guidance showing a weaker, broader shortwave out west have
been drier while a stronger, sharper shortwave brings quite a bit of
precipitation to the Gulf Coast. It`s worth mentioning that if the
shortwave goes too far south that it will take all of the
precipitation along with it. This is why there are still a few
scenarios on the table.

Scenario 1: We remain cold, but dry. The H5 trough and surface high
are too far south and the H5 shortwave mentioned above is too slow
to strengthen, or moves too far south, to allow for any sort of
precipitation to develop near or move over the region. This keeps
all of our forecast area cold and dry with just a few clouds
floating through. The most impactful thing from this scenario would
be bitterly cold temperatures and the issuance of additional cold
weather and/or (hard) freeze products.

Scenario 2: The H5 trough is just far enough north along with the
surface high to allow the low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico to
traverse along the northern Gulf Coast. This would lead to primarily
rain over most of the region. A very cold rain, mind you, but rain
nonetheless will fall for all but our northern Georgia counties,
which stand the best chance of picking up wintry precipitation. This
scenario could lead to flooding concerns if Saturday`s system
overperforms or if the heaviest rain falls over the same areas
during both events. As such, nuisance flooding and/or riverine
flooding would be the most impactful thing from this scenario.

Scenario 3: The H5 trough and shortwave are oriented in such a
manner to allow for the low to track well offshore and towards the
Tampa area. Couple this with the sprawling 1040+mb high providing
the cold temperatures and wintry precipitation enters the forecast
picture across most of the forecast area away from the cast. Ice, in
the form of sleet and/or freezing rain, would be the primary concern
as a layer of warmer air aloft around 6,000 to 9,000 feet over our
heads, or what we call a warm nose, would preclude any snow making
it to the surface. It`s way to early to be specific about amounts,
but a high-impact event would occur with this scenario.

All that said, things have trended in such a way to increase wintry
precipitation chances to 20% to 40% with this event for most of our
area away from the coast, which means that it`s unlikely to occur at
this time.

Remember, whenever you`re talking about wintry precipitation chances
in the Southeast that a lot can, and usually does, go wrong. Seeing
as this is still several days out, a lot can and will change in the
coming days. Please make sure to stay tuned to local, trusted
sources of weather information and to continually check back in with
the forecast the rest of the week and through the holiday weekend.

Another weak H5 shortwave is forecast to swing overhead Thursday
night. Temperatures will be on a warming trend and should be above
freezing should any precipitation fall. Still, it`s another thing
worth monitoring in future forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Overnight conds hold at VFR before cigs lower from west to east
in the morning as scattered showers arrive at DHN/ECP/ABY around
sunrise. A mix of MVFR/IFR conds are likely to accompany this
convection. Southerly LLWS up to 40 kts is another concern, but
should abate by mid-late morning outside of ABY/VLD. On and off
rain with embedded thunder is expected today with PROB30s for
-TSRA except ABY. Look for IFR-LIFR cigs this evening east of the
 ACF basin. South to SW winds mostly up to 10 kts prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Southerly winds are expected through Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase in response this weekend. Precipitation clears the waters
by Sunday with cautionary to advisory level northwest breezes
following. Hazardous boating conditions linger into mid-week as an
area of low pressure looks to form off the Texas coast, then track
eastward across the Gulf. Expect rain to return by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Rain returns tonight and especially into Saturday and early Sunday
ahead of the much anticipated Arctic front. A few thunderstorms
could occur, mainly across the panhandle and Big Bend areas. Rain
should exit the Big Bend Sunday before temperatures plummet into
early next week. Monday through Wednesday will be the coldest period
where highs will struggle into the 30s and low 40s after low
temperatures well down into the 20s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall along and southeast of a line
from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. Most of this area is
forecast to receive 1" to 2" of rain with isolated amounts as high
as 3". Less than 1" of rain is forecast elsewhere. The main concern
is this rain falling in a short amount of timing, which could cause
some nuisance flooding. On the riverine front, these rainfall
totals are such that all area rivers should remain in their banks.

Additional precipitation (liquid or frozen or both?) is anticipated
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. How much and exact location
remains highly uncertain at this time range, so stay tuned to latest
forecasts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   55  61  27  41 /  90   0   0   0
Panama City   50  60  27  42 /  80   0   0   0
Dothan        46  54  23  38 /  40   0   0   0
Albany        50  59  23  39 /  60   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  64  27  41 /  80  20   0   0
Cross City    58  65  29  45 / 100  60   0   0
Apalachicola  53  62  28  42 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese